Reality Check...?

[doogle92]

I just spoke with my uncle, a pilot and union rep, who said that with all the layoffs throughout the industry it could be 10 years before all the unemployed pilots are all flying again. Having spoke to someone on the open day the suggested that in a couple of years time the industry would be employing pilots again. FTO's like OAA continue to take in 20 odd potential- pilots every month but is there realistically any chance of getting a job?

I know that noone can predict the job market 2 years down the line and I don't want to get all PPRuNe, but is there seriously any light at the end of the tunnel for someone who joins OAA in the next 1-2 years or are FTOs just, un-ethically, kidding their students to get £70k out of them?

I was once told that this would, in the long term, look bad for the FTOs on their employment stats, but I was also told by the same person that 80 out of 250-ish OAA graduates have been employed this year...

I guess all I'm after is a combination of hope and a reality check that this can be done...

[DavidG]

Good question, it would be interesting to hear thoughts on this.

[johnlmcintyre]

Life is a gamble, nothing can be predicted.

You cant claim FTO's to be unethical after you make a comment saying no-one can predict the job market in 2 years time.

If you go out there and perform the best, gain the best results. Perform the best in interview, then you will more than likely be chosen even in the current climate.

Airlines are still hiring pilots and they will always hire pilots. Yes if you graduate when there is a boom in recruitment of pilots then it will be slightly easier to locate job interviews...... but you still need to perform well.

Life is as you make it. I know it sounds very deep but if you want it badly enough then no recession will stop you from getting hired. Every airline in the world will have hired pilots this year, you just need to stand out from the crowd to be chosen.

Practically every post on this forum talks about how important it is to have a back up plan. If you have a back up plan that you are conent with, and will provide adequate funding to pay back any of the debts you may have gained while doing the course. Then personally I would say get out there and give it your all.

[Andy Davidson]

Uncle or not, I would take anything you hear from a Union Rep with a very large shovel of salt.

You need to look at the issue on a global scale, not just the short-sighted UK only perspective. In Asia and the Far East, predictions are for a massive boom in aviation in the medium term. This region of the world is fast emerging as an economic powerhouse, and it covers a vast geographic area with what are very limited aviation services (by comparison with Europe and the US) at present. The scope for development here is staggering.

I would suggest that when their demand for crews picks up, many of the unemployed pilots whom your uncle refers to will simply be unwilling or unable to relocate to this region for the rewards likely to be on offer. That is not the same thing as jobs being unavailable.

[Mike Griffith]

If Unions and their reps had their way unfettered, there'd be no airlines left. If Airline managers had their way, there'd be no unions left. Reality, which is what you asked for, lies somewhere in the middle.

Your first mistake in asking for reality however is focusing on current employment statistics. If the students graduating right now did that two years ago, without listening to OAA or bank advice regarding sound contingency plans, they may be in difficulty right now. So you have to predict the future, which you have already stated is difficult if not impossible to do. All of this however, depends on how you intend to fund your course. If funding it with cash, you can afford to err on the timing. The more debt you intend to use, the more accurate your timing or the stronger your backup plan must be.

The unions are still moaning for the good old days when the airlines paid for training and offered final salary pension schemes and benefits were fat, as well as the coffers that held the union dues. Return of sponsorship would be very good for FTOs, but those days are gone and I doubt they will ever return, so wannabes have to bear the risk that airlines used to bear themselves.

The bottom line is that you can't achieve the licence without accepting risk, but you must assess and manage the risk properly. I'd say your Uncle's 10 year claim is hyperbole. Just grab any issue of FTN and look at the stats and projections for pilot demand and you can quickly see why recovery won't take 10 years.

[duncan]

Remember it could take Captain's and FO's different lengths of time to find a job again. A Captain who has 5/10 years and 1000's hours in command may not want to go back to been an FO so therefore may take a lot longer to find a DEC position. An FO may find a new job more quickly as when things pick up again airlines will start expanding and then you have the double effect of needing more FO's for expansion and more FO's to replace the FO's that have got their command internally. Also people may decide that they don't want to move away form the UK so therefore whilst things may pick up out in Asia or the Middle east, things may still be slow in the UK so finding a new job will take longer than maybe it would if you moved to the sand pit.

Therefore you can see that there are many variables effecting how long it could take someone to find a flying job again. For one person it may be 1 year. For another it may be 3 or 4 years.

The best advice you can be given at the moment if going down the flying training route is to make sure you have a BACK UP PLAN, BACK UP PLAN. There was a good article in Flight International a couple of weeks ago that highlighted this point.

Duncan

[paul.172]

I didn't know whether it was a Freudian slip or not but is there any connection between the new APPFirstOfficerPlus program and JobcentrePlus? Are Easy really likely to hire anyone at the end of the line training/pay to fly program? Any comments welcome.

[Mike Griffith]

Paul,

The FOs will not be employed by EZ, rather by Parc. Your guess is as good as the next person's as to whether or not EZ will eventually move anyone onto their payroll or whether they will go the contracting route long term.

As for the info on another web forum that may inspire a cynical view, if you do a bit of background research, you'll discover it was started by someone who failed OAA Assessment a few year's ago and has a good mate at EZ's main training partner of recent years, so he may have an axe to grind with OAA. This seems to be a not infrequent scenario on said forum, but in the end, it's horses for courses.

While it's not the industry's best T&Cs, if OAA hadn't participated another FTOs grads would be getting this work. Judging by over 100 applications, I'd say there are a lot of people interested and glad that we have something to offer.

[paul.172]

Mike, thanks for your comments. I do agree that it is better to have something to offer rather than nothing, its just a shame that the cost rules out many excellent grads with top notch skills who have run out of money.
My cynical view, referred to in your post, has been formed by the opinion that the likes of M.O'L and those who would emulate him, are managers who I suspect have few interpersonal skills, zero motivational skills, care little for their customers and even less for their employees and yet these people are driving the industry.
These people do not appear to regard grads as highly trained and highly skilled individuals lacking only in experience but simply as another revenue stream.
Everyone wants profitable, well run airlines but whilst taking from the industry where is the evidence that these people are giving anything back by funding, part funding, sponsoring, mentoring or even offering limited training bursaries to ensure the next generation of FOs and without FOs where will future Line Training Captains come from.
Finally without line training captains how will future line training/pay to fly schemes work?
I'm off to get all positive now and read through the latest copy of airline fleets international to see if there is anyone who has not yet been cantacted about possible employment.

Cheers!

[Mike Griffith]

Paul,

I share most of your views, but the finger also needs to go as far as the customers who have dropped their standards to £3 fares. They probably buy fair trade bananas, drink fair trade coffee and support their corner shops and despise mega store like Wal-Mart, yet they don't even realize their needs to be fair trade in this industry too. They probably even believe MOL is fighting for them LOL.